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Bitcoin again … This entry was posted in Analysis Forex Analysis on January 19, 2018 by David Hickson. In my previous post I wrote about Bitcoin, and presented an argument for the fact that Hurst cycles are active in the price fluctuations of this new currency. I concluded that post by stating that I believed a peak of 42-month magnitude was due to occur soon. I published the post on 16 December 2017, and on 17 December – the very next day (Bitcoin trades on a Saturday and Sunday) the coin reached a high price of $19,870 and promptly turned downwards. Just over a month later the coin dropped below $10,000, having lost nearly 50% of its value.
When I wrote the post in December, I was inspired to do so by the constant media coverage of Bitcoin – to the extent that pretty much the first thing anybody asked on hearing that I had an interest in financial markets was “What do you think of Bitcoin?” I am a dyed in the wool contrarian, and my first reaction when an investment instrument is making headlines, and everybody is wanting to “get on board for the ride”, is to expect a peak to form and the price to fall. The Hurst cycles analysis indicated that indeed a peak was due, supporting the contrarian view. As an aside here: I was asked in December to provide advice to someone who was very keen to buy Bitcoin. I realized the extent of the bullish fever when my advice not to buy because I believed the value was about to fall was greeted with disappointment, and a response of “Are you sure? Isn’t it possible that you got it wrong?” Bitcoin was clearly inspiring some of the feverish “madness” that inspired bubbles such as the Tulip craze in the 1600’s.
A month later I find myself inspired again to write a post about Bitcoin … again because of the media coverage and hype around this investment. However now media coverage is mostly on the other side, as demonstrated by this headline:
Not so bullish ...
There are many people crying “I told you so” because of the dramatic drop in value of Bitcoin, and claiming that Bitcoin’s future as a currency is over. However I am not one of them… As a contrarian, when the media starts ringing the death bells, I take an interest again. And of course my interest leads me to turn to the cycles to ask what is happening.
Is Bitcoin going to turn into a 21st-century example of the Tulip craze? I cannot provide a definitive answer to that question, however I believe we are at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin is able to settle into the natural rhythm of a currency, and start exhibiting clean “normal” Hurst cycles, then I believe the answer to that question is no, and Bitcoin will earn itself a place as a regular (if particularly volatile) currency. If Bitcoin fails to settle into a regular Hurst cycles pattern, then indeed we might look back on it as an example of how the madness of crowds continues into the 21st century.
I am inclined to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt, because it has recently been exhibiting good clean cycle structure as shown in this chart below. As discussed in my previous post, I believe that it is exhibiting the characteristics of an instrument that has synchronized peaks, which makes the peaks much more easy to identify than the troughs. In the chart below note how the circles and whiskers to the right hand side of the chart (in the area of the future, where there is no price data), are much clearer at the top of the chart (where the peaks are projected), then they are at the foot of the chart (where the troughs are projected).
A peak has formed
Nevertheless there is a discernible rhythm in the troughs, even if the variation in wavelength is a bit wider than it is for the peaks. The reason why I say that Bitcoin is now at a critical juncture, is that we are expecting a 20-week trough to form. If a good clear trough does form at this point then we would expect the value of the coin to bounce up from that 20-week low, and its response to the Hurst cycle influence would encourage me to believe that Bitcoin is finding its feet as a new currency, moved by the same cycles that move all other currencies. (As a matter of interest the question marks at the foot of the chart beneath Wednesday’s trading bar indicate that it is possible that 20 week trough formed on Wednesday).
Another very encouraging feature of the recent price action is that it has fulfilled a perfect “zigzag” move for the 20-week cycle from the peak on 17th December to the potential trough on Wednesday 17 January. This chart shows how Sentient Trader’s zigzag feature plots that zigzag downward move, and because of the perfection of that move, is already assuming that the move is complete and that the next move to expect is an upwards bounce out of the 20 week cycle trough.
Optimists amongst you will notice that the projection for the 20-week zigzag move up takes us off the chart to new high prices. I should caution you to take that projection with a pinch of salt, because it is based on recent moves out of the 20-week cycle trough, which have of course all been extraordinarily bullish. The zigzag tool considers each cycle in isolation, and does not consider the effect of that large and ominous peak in the middle of December. If that is indeed a peak of the 42-month cycle, then the bounce out of the 20-week cycle at this stage will not be nearly as impressive. To temper our enthusiasm for this bounce it is worth pointing out that this bounce is going to provide the correction for the 40-week cycle zigzag downwards from the peak in December to a trough expected in late March or early April, as shown in this chart:
The dashed line there shows the downward movement of the 40 week cycle, and the dotted upwards pointing line is the bounce that the 20 week cycle trough should give us on the way down to the 40 week cycle low.
Considering the combination of all these different cycles is what makes understanding a Hurst cycles analysis such a fascinating and complex process. Another tool which gives us a way of visualizing the implications of an analysis is the Composite Model Line, a relatively new feature in Sentient Trader which simply takes the cycle information derived from the analysis on the chart and “puts it back together” if you like, thereby composing a purely cyclic price action, in other words a hypothetical price action created by the combination of the cycles that have been identified in the market. This line is then projected forwards, on the basis that the cycles will keep beating with the same wavelength and amplitude (in fact the line assumes that the wavelength and amplitude of each cycle will return to average values if they are currently extended). This line should not be used as an absolute forecasting tool because we know that cycles are dynamic, and are constantly varying in their wavelength and amplitude, but it is nevertheless a useful tool to give us an idea of what to expect on the basis of the analysis on the chart. Here is the Composite Model Line for this analysis:
Composite Model Line
You can see that the CML is indicating that the market is expected to turn up now, as it forms the 20-week cycle trough. It is expected to move up into early February where an 80-day cycle peak is expected to form. It will then move down again, into the middle of February before turning back up again to form the 20-week cycle peak expected sometime in April. What has happened to that move down that we saw in the zigzag for the 40 week cycle? This is where the CML is so useful. The fact that we can hardly see any evidence of price coming down into that 40-week cycle trough indicates that the combination of the many cycles that influence the price action is likely to reduce the impact of that 40-week cycle move downwards. In simple terms we could explain this as the bullish impetus of the move up into the 20-week cycle peak cancelling out the bearish impetus of the move down into the 40-week cycle trough.
But looking ahead a few months and debating which cycle will prove more dominant at that point is an uncertain business at best. The important point that I wish to make here is that a 20-week cycle trough is expected to form. If the value of Bitcoin increases at this point and shows that it is responding to that 20-week cycle, then our confidence in the fact that Bitcoin is settling into the natural rhythm of the cycles will increase. What happens after that remains shrouded in some uncertainty, but as time passes and our confidence in the cycles moving Bitcoin either increases or decreases, we will be in a better position to resolve that uncertainty.
About David Hickson I have been trading for over 20 years, but only had any success after discovering Hurst's cyclic principles. Unable to find any software to speed up the analysis process I created Sentient Trader software, which now pretty much does all the analysis for me. I am a film maker and a TV director, but nowadays I mostly provide consultation services to professional traders and fund managers, helping them to integrate Hurst analysis into their trading. I'm South African and live with my family in Italy.
I have been working with Hurst and FDI indicators on metatrader and they calculate the Hurst exponent using a minimum range of 10 bars. It is interesting to use it with the Kaufmann efficiency ratio to double cross the concept. I also have seen some papers, where the FDI (Fractal Dimension Index 1<FDI<2 a variation of the Hurst) helps to "read" the Forex Behaviour better. Why don't you do a ... The Hurst exponent is used as a measure of long-term memory of time series. It relates to the autocorrelations of the time series and the rate at which these decrease as the lag between pairs of values increases. The Hurst exponent is referred to as the "index of dependence" or "index of long-range dependence". It quantifies the relative tendency of a time series either to regress strongly to ... Joined Forex Factory: Aug 2014; Posts (1,809) Total: 1,809 Posts. Forum Posts: 2 Threads Started 821 Thread Replies; Forum Attachments: 1 File 240 Images; News Posts: 986 Story Comments; Site Posts: FF: 1,779 MM: 4 CC: 3 EE: 1; Input by Hurst. About. Trading From: United Kingdom ; Input by Hurst. Links. Website: [email protected] Expand; Network; Latest A-Z; Ignored Show Content. Members who ... These 2 indicators are derivative work from Jim Hurst's book - "The Magic of Stock Transaction Timing". The bands are % bands around a median that gets calculated according to Hurst's formula. The outer bands (called ExtremeBands) signify extreme overbought/oversold conditions. Inner bands signify potential pullback points. As you can see, they also act as dynamic S/R levels. HURST'S DIAMONDS. Hurst's diamond notation clearly shows the position of cycle troughs ‹ › ... Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital ... The Hurst Coefficient was created by John Ehlers (Cycle Analytics For Traders pgs 67-68) and this is a very useful indicator to tell you if the stock is in a uptrend or downtrend. Feel free to change the length to experiment and to adjust to your needs. Buy when the indicator line is green and sell when it is red. Let me know if there are other indicators you... A Hurst exponent close to 1 indicates a strong propensity to trend. The value of Hurst exponent increases as the charting time period increases. I say this based on my experience reviewing the Hurst exponent and its relationship to various forex pairs, particularly the EUR/USD. Tick and one minute data show Hurst values consistently near 0.5 ... Der Artikel erklärt detailliert die Idee hinter dem Hurst-Exponenten, sowie die Bedeutung der Werte und den Algorithmus der Berechnung. Eine Reihe von Teilen des Finanzmarktes werden analysiert, und die Methode zur Umsetzung der Fraktalanalyse mit dem MetaTrader 5 wird beschrieben. Conversely, Hurst suggests that we would be more likely to be successful on longer time frames with momentum-style trading models. We also saw that Hurst approaches 0.5 – the random walk – for medium time frames, suggesting that we should perhaps avoid models that rely on that time horizon. Of course, this assumes that the future will be ... Hurst Cycles are often very clear in the forex markets. Here are recent posts about the forex markets: Bitcoin again … 2. This entry was posted in Analysis Forex Analysis on January 19, 2018 by David Hickson. In my previous post I wrote about Bitcoin, and presented an argument for the fact that Hurst cycles are active in the price fluctuations of this new currency. I concluded that post by ...
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